Engineering Risk Analysis

The Focus Group "Engineering Risk Analysis" of TUM-IAS Rudolf Diesel Industry Fellow Dr. Chin Man W. Mok (GSI Environmental, Inc.) and his TUM-Host Prof. Daniel Straub (Engineering Risk Analysis Group, TUM) focused on the following two subjects:

1. Reliability analysis of carbon dioxide geologic sequestration
Climate change is indisputably one of the most controversial subjects today. There is mounting evidence that climate change has been occurring rapidly in the last century. The scientific communities are largely convinced that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been exacerbating the rate of climate change today. As carbon dioxide is a dominating GHG, various carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies are being developed. Among these technologies, geologic sequestration is one of the most promising alternatives.  However, there are substantial uncertainties in subsurface characterization as well as the fate and transport of carbon dioxide in deep geologic environment. Thus, there are considerable concerns in regard to the risk/hazard associated with the technology and in regard to how measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) can be implemented to ensure acceptable reliability of such systems.

2. Reliability-based hazard/risk management decision support system
Sensing and cyber-infrastructure technologies (including remote sensing and transducers) have advanced significantly in recent years allowing high-resolution spatial and temporal data to be collected in real-time. By way of system models (such as BN) and dynamic system identification techniques, we can utilize these data to monitor and infer the state of many natural and man-made systems. These data can also serve as the basis for forecasting future conditions and prediction of the future risk/hazard/reliability of these systems.

TUM-IAS funded doctoral candidate:
Wolfgang Betz (PhD in 2017), Civil and Environmental Engineering

Publications by the Focus Group


  • Betz, W.; Mok, C. M.; Papaioannou, I.; Straub, D.: Bayesian Model Calibration using Structural Reliability Methods: Application to the Hydrological abc Model. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk, American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014 more…
  • Betz, Wolfgang; Papaioannou, Iason; Straub, Daniel: Numerical methods for the discretization of random fields by means of the Karhunen–Loève expansion. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 271, 2014, 109-129 more…
  • Wolfgang Betz, Iason Papaioannou, Daniel Straub: Adaptive Variant of the BUS approach to Bayesian Updating. 9th International Conference on Structural Dynamics EURODYN 2014, 2014 more…


  • Yuan, J; Papaioannou, I; Mok, C; Straub, D: Effect of rainfall on the reliability of an infinite slope. In: Geotechnical Safety and Risk IV. CRC Press, 2013 more…